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29.10.2007, 11:50 quote

Anonymous

Why do people always talk about rising and falling "house prices" ?

I think houses always become worth less over time - only the land houses are build on is rare and therefore a "house" costs more money - but not because of the house, only because of the land.

The older your car or your trousers get, the less they are worth. I don't think houses make an exception (in theory) - the older the crappier (excluding really old houses with a history).

What do you think ?

The roof doesn't get rainproover, the pipes won't be less likely to get blocked, the windows won't isolate better, the doors won't shut better - the older a house gets. So in theory house prices would be falling all the time - if building land was not such a big problem.

 

29.10.2007, 13:35 quote

trevp66
trevp66 Joined: 26 May 2006 Posts: 1121 Location: United Kingdom, England, Hertfordshire
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I agree

(and particularly this is quite 'spooky' for me cos I was working my way up through the threads, and posted a similar comment in the 'strange questions...' thread, then saw this topic after Confused )

 

17.11.2007, 01:24 quote

samatron
samatron Joined: 24 May 2007 Posts: 219 Location: United Kingdom, England, Greater Manchester
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I think there's always been a crazy debate over house prices.
Pretty dumb too considering that the relative cost of houses stays the same, whatever your house is worth.
The interest rates are more important than the house prices when it comes to property.

 

17.11.2007, 13:37 quote

kebabman
kebabman Joined: 03 Jan 2007 Posts: 931 Location: United Kingdom, England, Lancashire
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samatron wrote:
I think there's always been a crazy debate over house prices.
Pretty dumb too considering that the relative cost of houses stays the same, whatever your house is worth.
The interest rates are more important than the house prices when it comes to property.


Out of interest, in what sense do you mean 'relative house prices'? Obviously if you own a house and want to buy a new one then if house prices have changed across the board, yes the relative prices (percentage wise) are the same. Unless of course that house that you were looking at 5 years ago has gone up in price and hit a higher stamp duty bracket putting it just out of your reach in which case the relative price has gone up.

One of the biggest problems with rising house prices is first time buyers. Luckily I live in an area in which house prices are relatively low and was able to afford to buy a house on my own a few years ago. Friends of mine down in London who are on very good salaries for their age are still not able to get on to the property ladder and this is hitting them hard.

I agree though, Interest rates are a great influence on the property market, however I'm not sure that they are more of an infulence than the prices themselves. Interest rates are the same no matter how much your house is worth. So Interest rates are relative to the price of the house that you buy, you pay the same percentage on either mortgage.

Just my 2 pence worth.
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18.11.2007, 22:44 quote

Anonymous

Interest rates matter, because it only makes/made sense to by a house if it is cheaper then renting a house. Once you start loosing money by buying a house
, it makes no sense to buy it.

The only reason why house prices went up is that interest rates where so low that lots of people made lots of money buy getting a mortgage on a house and renting it out - and the rents paid for the mortgage. As interests rates and house prices go up, it is not possible anymore and you are better off selling the house any putting the money on a savings account.

 

18.11.2007, 23:50 quote

kebabman
kebabman Joined: 03 Jan 2007 Posts: 931 Location: United Kingdom, England, Lancashire
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god wrote:
Interest rates matter, because it only makes/made sense to by a house if it is cheaper then renting a house. Once you start loosing money by buying a house
, it makes no sense to buy it.

The only reason why house prices went up is that interest rates where so low that lots of people made lots of money buy getting a mortgage on a house and renting it out - and the rents paid for the mortgage. As interests rates and house prices go up, it is not possible anymore and you are better off selling the house any putting the money on a savings account.


Not sure I agree with that. Define "cheaper than renting a house". Is that taking into account the capital assets gained? And the long term appreciation of the property? Property value will go up in the long term. Plus you can either use it as a source of income or a place to live. When you rent, the money is gone no matter what. When you buy you are putting money into something. I fail to see how renting and putting money into a savings account is better as ok, you have the savings account but all the money you spend on rent is instantly gone. The only money you get to put into the savings account is the difference between the cost of your rent and the amount you would pay for a mortgage. This would typically not be that much.

You also say "Once you start loosing money by buying a house, it makes no sense to buy it." Just because you might pay more for a mortgage than to rent does not mean you are losing money. Again, back to the point of having nothing to show for your rent at the end of the rental term as opposed to the capital gained when you buy a property.
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19.11.2007, 00:16 quote

samatron
samatron Joined: 24 May 2007 Posts: 219 Location: United Kingdom, England, Greater Manchester
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It is possible to lose money by buying over renting. For example, when properties go into negative equity (which happens every once in a while). People have £120,000 mortgages on houses that are suddenly worth £80,000 and so on.

What I meant by relative house prices is, the idea that you buy a house. It's kind of irrelevant that you have made capital gains on the house because if you want to move to a bigger house, that place has gone up in value relatively too. Capital gains are of value if you are trading houses and want to cash in a property of course!

I fear going into the whole buy-to-let arena, but it does seem like a very straightforward way of achieving financial freedom. Obviously, it's not easy or everyone would be doing it. Property is big business. I went to a property seminar in London during the summer. It's amazing the risks some people will take in the whole property market. Buying off-plan. Financing property purchases through credit cards. Hiring property gurus and sourcers for £2k a day. I'm too chicken to do any of that stuff. I guess I'll never have the lambo!

 

19.11.2007, 00:45 quote

kebabman
kebabman Joined: 03 Jan 2007 Posts: 931 Location: United Kingdom, England, Lancashire
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samatron wrote:
It is possible to lose money by buying over renting. For example, when properties go into negative equity (which happens every once in a while). People have £120,000 mortgages on houses that are suddenly worth £80,000 and so on.


Agree with what you said really, with the exception of this (to some degree). Whilst a property may go into negative equity, as long as you can afford to pay the mortgage it's not that big a deal. The problem with the house price drop in the late eighties was the recession at the same time. This meant a lot of people who went into negative equity lost their jobs as well meaning they had a huge debt with no means to pay it off. If you are secure in a job then going into negative equity is a short term problem. If you can carry on paying the mortgage then in the long term the house price will climb again. Of course there are lots of factors that come into all of this and it all depends on the state of the general economy as well as your own financial security at the time.
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19.11.2007, 08:10 quote

Anonymous

kebabman wrote:

Not sure I agree with that. Define "cheaper than renting a house". Is that taking into account the capital assets gained? And the long term appreciation of the property? Property value will go up in the long term.
.


Yes, it is taking into account that you do not have any extra costs when you are renting (e.g. repairs, maintenance...) and the long-term deprecation of the property

It is a myth that property will become more expensive in the future...just
because this happened in the past. In my opinion must houses are overvalued... You also need to keep in mind that your mortgage runs out some day...and if then, the interest rate has doubled, you end up paying twice as much. If you sell your house, you also need to pay additional fees to get out the mortgage....and taxes on the house sale if you're unlucky.

If you use it as a source of income you have to pay taxes on it - and you always need to spend money on maintenance..

If you do not need a mortgage, the rent from the house needs to be about what you would get on a savings account. If you do need a mortgage, the rent would need to cover the interests as well...and nobody will pay so much rent anyhow.

If you rent, the money is gone. True. But what s the difference between wasting the money on the rent and on wasting the money to a bank ?

The mortgage is also "wasted" on the bank. Only the clearance is "yours"...but this is often only 1 percent or something...so negligible.
If you buy a house you need to pay a "rent" on the borrowed money which is sometimes even higher then the rent of a comparable house!

Additionally you have to pay property taxes etc....which you don't have to if you are renting something.

People always say it was easy and safe to make money on buying and selling property - or at least in "owning" something yourself. The easiest and safest way is in my opinion a savings account.

Give me some values...e.g. house price.mortgage rates...and I can show you the arithmetic behind it.....and what I don't think buying is a good idea in the UK nowadays....




This graph compares the ratio between buying versus renting in some countries over time.....in most countries buying versus renting became more and more expensive....and this has been a continuing process for decades now.

The ratio varies from country to country and town to town. I personally would only buy something if the price is not more then 200x the monthly rent.

E.g. if your monthly rent is 400 pounds, the property should not be more expensive then 400*200 = 80,000 pounds.

If it costs 120,000 pounds, it would not be worth it. You could put it on a savings account and get about 6% interest rates = 600 pounds per month.
So if you rent, you would save 200 pounds per month at least.

Sooner or later you would also need to replace the roof/windows insulate the walls, replace the pipes...and you might end up spending a couple of thousand pounds all at once some day....

I also don't believe house prices will rise in the long-term as people become more demanding as far as the quality of living is concerned and in 10 years nobody would want to live in an "average" house of today - and often it is cheaper to knock down an old house and to build a new one then trying to convert an old house....so nobody will be interested in the house itself anyhow and just buy it in order to get hold of the land for a new plot. I also think the government will make it harder with environmental laws.....and people will have the choice between spending amount x on refurbishing an old house and make it more energy-efficient or on spending the same amount on just replacing the whole house with a new one ...

 
 
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